Budget 2025: Initial Thoughts

Introduction

Despite record levels of homelessness and the issue often being cited as the Government’s top priority, there was notably no mention of the issue in either of the Minister’s budget speeches.

It should be acknowledged that the budget did contain some welcome measures. Increases to qualified child payments and double child benefit will be a support for children and families.

Measures such as the increased renters tax credit and increases to welfare payments are positive interventions.

However, there is notable absence of ambition to increase social housing output to the level that is required. There were no targeted measures to support those experiencing homelessness, who are desperately trying to find a housing solution in an insecure housing market.

Social Housing

New Build Social Homes

Budget 2025 provided the capital funding required to support the delivery 10,000 new build social homes. Having reviewed several years of housing needs assessment reports and considering the number of households in the PRS supported through HAP payments, Simon Communities of Ireland believes that the State should aim to deliver 15,000 social homes annually. In our pre-budget submission, we proposed an increase in funding to support the delivery of 12,500 homes in 2025 as a step towards the target of 15,000. The evidence from both the Housing Commission Report and the ESRI report on housing targets clearly shows that we must raise our ambition for social housing delivery. Indeed, the Taoiseach has raised the issue of the need for increased output and the Minster for Housing is to revise housing targets.

As set out above budget 2025 provided the capital funding required to support the delivery 10,000 new build social homes.

This was in line with targets set out under Housing for All. The Government have acknowledged that these targets are insufficient. 

Housing Assistance Payment

Budget 2025 provided funding to enable 8,400 new households to secure a home through HAP, as well as continuing support for ‘over 50,000 HAP tenancies estimated to be in place at the end of 2025.’ This shows a reduction in the allocation for HAP since last year, and highlights how the Government expects the total number of HAP tenancies to continue to fall. Some of this loss of HAP tenancies will be absorbed by the ongoing commitment to the Tenant in Situ (TIS) scheme. However, we know that TIS does not cover all tenants, as landlords can serve notices of termination (NoTs) for several reasons other than their intention to sell their property. For example, landlords can serve NoTs if they intend to move a family member into the property, substantially renovate the property or change the use of the property.

SCI has long argued that HAP is not a sustainable housing solution and has been over-relied upon to provide social housing. However, it is concerning that the decline in HAP tenancies has not been offset by an increase in the delivery of long-term social homes.  To protect households living in the PRS from entering homelessness, we need to see the continued roll out of the TIS scheme at scale.

Budget 2025 did not include an increase to existing HAP rates. This is despite SCI’s quarterly Locked Out of the Market reports continuously highlighting the inadequacy of the current rates. While we acknowledge that it is unsustainable to chase runaway market rents, those on low incomes who are reliant on HAP are being faced with unaffordable top-up payments to maintain their tenancies. Increasing HAP rates would allow these households to maintain their tenancies while additional social housing units come onstream and prevent further homeless presentations from the PRS.  

Social Protection

Budget 2025 provided an increase of €12 for weekly social protection payments. In our PBS we proposed an increase of €20 to make progress towards restoring the real value of social protection supports. This follows below inflation adjustments to these supports in previous years.

In addition, several cost of living lump sum payments were announced. Similar payments were provided in previous budgets and have made a positive impact on poverty. According to Survey of Income and Living Conditions (SILC) data, the consistent poverty rate in 2023 was 3.6%. With cost-of-living measures excluded, the consistent poverty rate was 4.4%. Therefore, while these measures are welcome to those in receipt of them and have provided a partial buffer against the rise in living costs, a level of consistency must be provided.

As outlined in our PBS, to prevent poverty rates from rising, it is imperative that the Government move away from the provision of ‘once off’ lump sum measures and towards the benchmarking of social welfare payments against a minimum standard of living, creating a safety net for which nobody should fall beneath.

Homeless Services

Budget 2025 provided €303 million for the delivery of homeless services. This is a welcome increase on last year’s allocation. However, we note that in last year’s budget, the Housing First initiative was allocated a further €35 million. It appears there was no additional allocation to Housing First this year.  

Another important caveat here, is that the actual spending on homelessness services tends to be higher than what is allocated on budget day. Therefore, while this is an increase on last year’s allocation, it may not be an increase on the actual expenditure on homeless services. For example, in 2023, €215 million was allocated to homeless services. However, according to local authority financial reports, there was a total spend of almost €317 million on the provision of homeless services across the country. It is important to note here that this €317 million it is not entirely funded by the Exchequer, with local authorities providing 10% of the funding required for homeless services from their own resources. However, even after taking this 10% into account, spending on homeless services was significantly higher than what was allocated on budget day. In 2024, €242 million was allocated to homeless services and the department will be seeking further funding under the revised estimates system. Therefore, increases in budget allocations should be considered with caution.

Budget 2025 also provided capital funding of €12 million to support the delivery of ‘high quality transitional and emergency accommodation for individuals experiencing homelessness.’ We look forward to hearing more detail on this in the coming weeks.

Vacancy

Budget 2025 increased the rate of the Vacant Homes Tax (VHT) from five to seven times the Local Property Tax rate. While we welcome the increase, it does not go far enough to function as a punitive measure given that house prices are rising at a rate of 10% nationally. There are also issues with exemptions and self-assessment, with just 3,000 homes liable for the VHT last year. These issues need to be reviewed. There are several schemes available to assist homeowners in bringing vacant properties back into use, therefore it is unacceptable that so many homes are lying vacant at a time when housing need is so high.

Conclusion

Despite record levels of homelessness and the issue often being cited as the Government’s top priority, there was notably no mention of the issue in either of the Minister’s budget speeches.

As outlined above there was very little in budget 2025 that will see progress on the issue. Every budget is about choices, and it is acknowledged that addressing homelessness requires significant investment. However, we would make the case, supported by international evidence, that the social and financial costs of inaction are greater.  

Working to End Homelessness by 2030

Make Homelessness An Election Issue

Simon Talks

Budget 2025 in Context: Ireland’s Spending Programmes that Prevent and Reduce Homelessness

We are delighted to be joined by Nat O’Connor for our next #SimonTalks webinar to discuss Budget 2025, taking place on the 21st of October at 10am.  

Nat O’Connor is Lecturer/Assistant Professor in Social Policy at UCD’s School of Social Policy, Social Work and Social Justice, and a member of the UCD Geary Institute for Public Policy. 

Author: Rebecca Hamilton

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